Russia has a long history of using its vast energy resources to carry out a sanctions and incentives regime against Ukraine, granting steep price discounts and generous credit terms to administrations it considers cooperative while punishing administrations that pursue more nationalistic policies. Since 2014, Russia’s energy sanctions have been combined with military operations to directly threaten the political independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Russia’s aggressive use of its dominant energy position to achieve political objectives in Ukraine suggests that European nations should be extremely cautious as their dependence upon Russian energy resources grows. Like Ukraine, the EU and its member states may be forced to develop competitive supply alternatives to mitigate Russia’s growing leverage.